Tesla Napkin Math Challenge: $3000 by 2030

48 comentários em “Tesla Napkin Math Challenge: $3000 by 2030”

1. European roads are bad? 😀 I have seen US roads and many are way worse than here in germany for sure. I think it varys a lot within the US as well as EU.

2. Thx Warren

   Always intelligent videos.

   I learn a lot from you.

   Peace ☮️

   🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸 Musk

3. It's AI at work FSD WILL EORK EVERYWHERE PERIOD

4. What's good for the world?

5. Semi will be up to 2 million units by the end of 2023

6. The simplicity of the napkin math model might make it more accurate than most detailed models. Every assumption is not fully informed, therefore make less assumptions. Two thoughts about your model…
   1. Understated… Model excludes the service revenue from a 100m+ customer base. Forget Robotaxi, this is high quality recurring revenue of charging, insuring, connecting, and reselling.
   2. Overstated… something weird is going on with "deployed" Energy. Storage deployed doubled last quarter, but Energy revenues went up 30%. The entire Energy business revenue equals $500 x 2.1MW deployed. I think they're running Megapack at break even, selling just enough to pay for the units they keep that will produce service revenue for decades to come.

7. How is the fantasy going? In 2022 you were bragging with tesla reaching 10k a share….
   Still waiting…

8. Warren – BREAKING NEWS – Tesla opens up its DC fast charging up to the WORLD w/ NACS 1 Mw capable DC fast charger.
   Developers can Download specs .

9. Warren can u host another. I’d like to take about competition / recycling / issues / future forecasting…

10. People have forgot once recycling ramps. We need less and less mining going on

    They’d prolly be better positioned to first start a redwood competitor building their own recycling center to recycle tesla cars for lower costs / higher margins for the next car

11. since tesla just dropped their solar business how´s that changing the future of the stock?

12. Whatever the majority believes is deemed true. But is it really? The media is mind control.

13. I appreciate this video and your comments. My issue with the robotaxi valuation including what you call the simple version of replacing uber is assuming the FSD technology will be solved. I don't think that's guaranteed. If we achieve FSD, then you are right but that's a big if. Even forgetting FSD, assuming we achieve 10 million cars per year with 10K profit margin per car is assuming that demand for Model Y, Model 3 and maybe the Cybertruck would reach such levels. The market is worried right now about achieving a 2 million sales level given what we see happening with China demand. I have been long tesla since 2018. Last year my position represents half of my wealth. Did not sell a share yet. But I like to be the devil's edvocate and think about the worse case. Are we sure FSD will be solved? are we sure that demand will keep up with our 10 to 20 million per year production target? are we sure that at 10 million a car per year, we can still profit 10K per car and still have such high level of demand? do we need a cheaper car to achieve this? if we do, we should assume a lower profit per car. You can't make 10K per car when you are selling a car at $25K. Maybe we can but unlikely. Those are just questions? I know the huge decline in the stock price is trigetting some of my fears and hence making me look at what I could be missing. Markets can be stupid but I like to question my assumptions. we can still profit 10K per car and still have such high level of demand? do we need a cheaper car to achieve this? if we do, we should assume a lower profit per car. You can't make 10K per car when you are selling a car at $25K. Maybe we can but unlikely. Those are just questions? I know the huge decline in the stock price is trigetting some of my fears and hence making me look at what I could be missing. Markets can be stupid but I like to question my assumptions.

14. Thanks for posting this discussion on YouTube

15. Guys stop it. Musk screwed us. He predicted s recession and could have waited 6 months and got Twitter for 20 billion so not a genius. Had he waited Tesla would never have gone below 300 a share

16. Warren, what happened to your $100,000 per share valuation by 2030? You were quite sure of that a year ago or so. A mere 3000 per share is very disappointing.

17. Re: self-driving; it can show significant value to the car buying public once FSD is distributed to many cars, and the statistics can show a significant savings in human lives. It doesn't even require full driverless operation, just a much safer car.

18. Warren, your relatively simple models, do not capture the macro dangers for Tesla and the world. China will not allow Tesla to eclipse their companies. If this begins to happen, they will stomp down hard. There appears to be groups of people in the world that we would call deranged that have goals like, destruction of the U.S., and/or depopulation of the world. Your models only make any kind of sense if the good guys (e.g. Elon) advances technology fast enough, and gains power fast enough to be able to deal with China, Islam, WEF, etc. What is this probability?

19. By 2030 Tesla will be so big that anti-trust laws will force the company to be broken up. The easiest way to do that will probably be to split the rovo-taxi fleet from the manufacturing. That will force Tesla to charge the "fleet" company to pay standard public price for Full Self Driving. Tesla itself will make money off selling more FSD but I'm not sure they will get a slice of the fleet income. The fleet company will have more money to pay off due to having had to pay for FSD but get to keep all taxi type income INCLUDING any share from private owners who put their vehicles into the fleet part time. The first question will be whether the FSD software development and upgrades stay with Tesla (because the use the neural net(s) on the bots) or not. The second question will be which company is legally responsible for any accidents that happen to a robo-taxi.

20. 177.60-13.70 (-7.16%) Not aging well.. LOL You guys are way too emotionally involved with Tesla. It is just a company. And the market can me a cruel mistress.

21. China did something crazy, they have made a Molten Salt Reactor that runs off of Thorium. The USA had a military airplane with a Molten Salt Reactor, The program was shut down about 50 years ago. Oakridge Developed this first reactor using T-232—-> pump up to U-233. At the time spent researching 13,172 hours was used but by 1968 the ended and shut dwn in 1969, until China redesign and brought it to commercialization. Maybe China can sell to Europe since Russian shut down energy to Europe.

    The Thorium Molten Salt reactor is really a great idea. There is 4X as many deposit as U-235 used on current reactors,

    1) Uranium—> require refining
    2) Thorium—>fuel no refining

    3) Uranium Reactor need water
    4) Molten Salt Reactor using Thorium don’t use water ( Fluoride Salt instead ) –> YES corrosive but Oakridge development used “INOR-8” or Hasteloy-N in the late 1950 that prevent corrosion

    5) Uranium Reactor waste 1/2 life about 10,000 year emitting neutrons particles
    6) Thorium waste 1/2 Life 500 years. em7itting alpha particles that won’t penetrate the skin. safer for sure

    7) Uranium Reactor under high pressure 150 atm and temperature 325 centigrade and can’t exceed 374 centigrade
    8) Molten Salt Reactor using Thorium work under one atm so no pressure is involved

    9) Uranium efficiency—> 5%
    10) Thorium efficiency—->95%

    There is so much more so I recommend you look up China next generation Molten Salt Reactor using Thorium as fuel
    I have so much more but hopefully you will see why China has made an amazing progress on this reactor.

22. I think Tesla needs to aim for 10 TWh for 2030. Plenty of uses for any excess.

23. 12 million production times 50k profit cause of FSD times 20 pe ratio makes 12 trillion. Stock price above 3000

24. London is more complex than us markets. 90% of driving is perception which is general. The last 10% road markings and light design will not take that long.

25. Warren dont get me wrong, but roads are extremly different in Europe! And Autopilot, automatic headlights and the windscreen wipers are complete shit!

    If i would drive on autopilot here all the time, people would go to the police for harrasment.

    In Germany Tesla isnt even able to tell you the right speedlimit!!

    Sometimes its 70 when its 100, sometimes its 80, when you could Go 220.

    Its a mess down here.

26. I don't get how Elon tells his audience Self driving increases efficiency to 24hrs when he knows full well it needs charging time.. lots of it.

27. I agree with what the caller says about deploying the robo taxi doing simple turns. It is one thing to prove the product works, it is another thing to prove that the business works. Why not deploy, as Warren said, doing ‘easier routes’ way ahead of when it is ready to do left turns.

28. I love the way your model simplifies the way investors need to think about this investment. My only push back with the battery model is how much Tesla would need to ‘share’ the spoils with battery suppliers come 2030 when the only cars around are EVs. At some point, battery suppliers will have the leverage to demand a bigger portion of that 3T pie when they realize that batteries are what runs the economy (just like how oil does right now).

29. I don't foresee mass adoption of Robotaxi anytime soon. Yeah it might be cheaper, but I feel the middle class will still want a car. But, while I won't use Uber or other ride share, I rather rent a car or call a friend, I can see robo taxi's being used more in urban area's. If they are clean and you don't have to ride with strangers. If you don't live paycheck to paycheck, who cares if robo taxi is cheaper.

30. Warren, I know you have done napkin math for bot, energy, robo taxes and cars, but do you have one all encompassing napkin math that covers tesla as a whole? I would like to see where your at in 2030 for the total price per share for tsla.

31. iPhone production to grow in India by 150% by 2023. Samsung and Foxconn are following Apple’s lead and will set up shop in India shortly. Buffett sold much or all of his holdings in BYD. Did Buffett make this move due to the shifting political ground in China? Things can change in China on a dime just look at what happened to Alibaba.

32. How many Peaker Plants are there in the world & if Tesla can replace a good number of them in the US & around the world how much in revenue would that be? A Trillion dollars just from Tesla Energy at some point? And then they start to replace Power Plants with Solar & Wind grids that tie into their Peaker Plant grids as the cost of solar, wind & battery storage continues to reduce in cost how much more can this segment grow? How much land do they own in Texas & Nevada where they could make more Mega factories to make batteries & build Mega Packs? They seem to have everything they need to increase Tesla Energy already with the potential to grow including them getting into the refining & mining of lithium. And they seem to be a million miles ahead of all the competition in all these segments & just require the raw materials to scale it up & they have contracts with numerous companies to scale their production dramatically as the mega factories get built. There are a few lithium companies in Nevada that Tesla Energy could buy for the land to increase their mining capabilities as they get richer. The future for Tesla Energy looks amazing from my perspective.

    And then there is the possibility of building a Robot that can replace menial repetitive jobs, changing labour requirements dramatically in millions of factories & in the job market globally. There are washrooms in every factory worldwide, what if one robot could clean the washrooms all day & all night in every factory around the world, that would be millions & millions of robots that can do just one job. How many schools are there around the world? What if a Robot can clean the washrooms & sweep the floors & keep the schools clean? Think of all the other job possibilities some that you have experienced that a robot can do not just in your place of work but globally? What if they taught their robot to drive their vehicles as a chauffer? How many busy business people would need to be chauffeured around? How many parents would prefer a robot to chauffer their kids around rather than an Uber/Taxi driver? What if Tesla's RoboTaxis came with a Robot driver that assured no one would damage the car & cleaned the car after people were in the car. How many landscaping companies could use robots to cut people's grass & maintain their property. What if they could program robots to shovel snow in winter, go up on the roof & clean the eaves troughs or shovel the snow off the roof? The potential of robots to do simple, menial, repetitive dangerous jobs is unlimited.

33. The margins on bot would be insane. You need only a fraction of the batteries. The cost to produce would be much less than a car. And the price to the consumer would/could be way more than a car, so the profits would be off the charts. Imagine building a bot for a few thousand dollars but selling it for $50k or $75k or even $100k, not to mention ongoing revenue from enabling certain features.

34. If Tesla buys back $10 billion in stock will that not off set Elon selling $4 billion in shares & increase the stock price? Then if they have an epic 4th Qrt. that increases their sales & revenues won't that also increase the stock price or it should. And won't the tax incentives starting next yr in the US along with record sales & revenues every Qtr. also increase the stock price which should push it closer to $1,000 per share at the end of 2023? And if Elon begins to make changes at Twitter that increases the stock & the product won't that increase the overall perception of Elon himself & the company at the same time? And if they get into the refining & mining of Lithium given they bought thousands of acres of potential lithium deposits in Nevada, won't that over time bring down the cost of refining & mining lithium because they are doing it themselves with their Boring machines? And their Giga factories are expanding, their production is increasing, they are releasing both the Semi & CyberTruck next yr, Tesla energy is increasing, FSD is improving & they are working on a Robotaxi & TeslaBot. Won't all that also increase their stock next yr & every yr afterwards for the next decade or two or three?

35. my god what a bargain price for tesla .so buying MORE

36. I’m getting concerned and annoyed. Honestly need a break from Tesla/Elon news for a while. Will check back in 5 years haha

37. Cant see the napkin math, show it?

38. Quit leading the sheeple over the cliff!

39. Your toilet 🚽 paper math 🧮 needs to be flushed!

40. Here is my definition of level 5 car, or whatever Warren wants to call it:

    A level 5 car will have no steering wheel or foot pedals. I wonder if you agree Warren ?

    Now there might be an emergency call button, 911 button or whatever in the car just like automatic elevators have emergency buttons; but that is it.

    Any accidents, if there is any blame, will be on FSD unless another car is at fault; or, something else.

    Since no drivers inside the car, FSD takes on full accident responsibility.

    Agree Warren on this definition of Level 5 ?

41. The only issue I see with the first callers bear case scenario is if Tesla only accomplishes 10m cars at $10k profit wouldn’t p/e get crushed to something like traditional auto makers

42. Great video, Warren. I do have a question and maybe you can help out – so Tesla has reduced prices in China recently b/c supposedly demand has gone a bit soft. But as I understand it, there are still waiting periods for Tesla's in China for a month or two+, correct? If that's the case, why would Tesla need to reduce prices? ie – if any product (basketballs, skis, meat, computers, etc.) has a waiting line of people who want that particular product, I can't imagine any company would all of a sudden reduce the price. So why would Tesla? Just curious to understand the dynamic that's going on here. Thank you! Keep up the good work

43. My guess it will be robotaxi and Teslabot that will underperformed. Robotaxi is greater than a decade away and will lose money for a decade after that. Suspect Robotaxi might be profitable after 20 years.

44. Tesla has to reduce the China risk. The dependence on fucking dictatorships is ridiculous

45. Where’s the lucid video!!! Lol you know we can’t wait lol

46. US companies are now starting to leave China for India and Viet Nam due to CCP politics. The tensions between the US and China is growing as it relates to Taiwan and likely will affect your projections dramatically. This doesn’t even factor the extreme drought in China which may also interrupt production. The quicker Tesla diversifies and opens more factories around the world the better. Can we get to 20M vehicles by 2030 without relying on rare earth metals coming from China?

47. Warren is a 🐉

48. but today isnt the best time to buy shares since Musk is selling his own shares of recent and Tesla stock price has gone down 50% so far but still even at the current 52 week lows Tesla hasnt bothered to do any buy backs itself yet with their tens of billions of profit accumulated thats still also being patient sitting on the sidelines.. that tells me even those at the forefront within the company know its a rough road directly ahead.

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