Qué tan alto puede llegar Bitcoin? Qué esperar de BTC en el 2022. La Fed y el Efecto Multiplicador.

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Market Commentary:

Bitcoin: Happy new all-time high everyone. Bitcoin saw yet another memorable week for Bitcoin’s history, closing at $26,258 up 11.85%, after briefly breaching the $28,000 level on Sunday evening. This price action came on the back of strong institutional purchases and interest. The CME Bitcoin Futures are currently halted “limit up” at the time of this writing on Sunday evening. This is an impressive but not-necessarily-good thing, as market makers and others rely on the futures market to offload risk. Bitcoin has broken from its highs and is squarely on price discovery mode. While nobody really knows how far it can run, looking at the options markets can provide some insights as to what investor expectations are. Looking at the Deribit platform, we see that the June 2022 options have significant open interest in the $32k and $40,000 levels, and about equally light OI in the $52k – $60k range and at $72k.

Looking at the September contracts, we see action again in the $32k and $40 levels, with some interesting levels in the $56k and $72k – but what stands out the most in this chart is the fact that there is comparable or higher open interest in the $80k and $100k contracts for September.

Separately, on Monday last week, the CEO of Ripple said that it was expecting to receive a lawsuit from the SEC. The very next day, the SEC charged Ripple and 2 executives with the sale of USD $1,200,000,000 unregistered securities. This sent Ripple and altcoins in general tumbling – although Bitcoin’s Santa Rally was enough to have some speculators FOMO into alts negating much of the downturn in price. With Bitcoin soaring through the holidays, there is a good chance that market speculators try to relive “alt season” – only to have the SEC damper the party in the coming months with enforcement announcements.

We’ll cover what we can expect in the coming week in our What’s Ahead section later today.

Thoughts on 2022:
As we close out a great (but very volatile) year for Bitcoin, let’s reflect on the trends that played out this year – and which ones are likely to continue into 2022. 2022 was the year that bitcoin was put through the ultimate test – and emerged being formally recognized as a reserve asset. Not just by a niche technologist community – but by the world’s top macro investors. In the words of the New York Times, 2022 was also “the year the Fed changed forever” – the two, in our view, are very much related. As we have covered extensively in this publication, the Fed has completely shifted its policy stance and is aggressively pursuing a weaker U.S. dollar. This will very much continue into 2022 – likely pushing bitcoin further into the limelight as a reserve asset. With MicroStrategy kick-starting the trend with its treasury purchase, other corporations, insurance companies, and even governments, that are considering purchasing Bitcoin will likely make announcements in Q1 – Q2 of 2022. With Bitcoin formally being recognized as a reserve asset driving client demand, there will be a flurry of investment activity to incorporate Bitcoin infrastructure in fintech companies and then traditional banks. The Coinbase IPO will be the event to watch as a catalyst. If, or rather, when it is successful, it will create a precedent for others to follow. Expect to see mergers and acquisitions in the space, and maybe even a go-public event through a SPAC.

With a potential Bitcoin supercycle, there will undoubtedly be a push for regulation. Bad actor regimes will also try to benefit from Bitcoin, which will cause concern in developed markets. As an industry, we are likely to see a renaissance in proof of reserves, which will be a great tool to show regulators operational robustness. There will also be a focus on KYC from regulators, which will likely fuel a bifurcation in KYC vs. non-KYC product offerings that we are already starting to see. This push can very well translate to pressure from governments on stablecoin issuers and privacy services such as mixers, as well as privacy coins. The recent events from the SEC towards Ripple have made it very clear that U.S. regulators will enforce the rules in their turf – and we are likely to see a lot more of that in 2022.

On the Macro side, the overarching theme will continue to be dollar weakness. We will see inflation in the U.S. dollar – which may push investors to exploring other asset classes and geographies, taking their “low cost” dollars to invest in markets that have more attractive risk-returns. As Michael Saylor notes, we are already seeing hyperinflation in “desirable assets” in USD terms. This is key and we will be breaking this down in our next BEC.

As always, we’ll keep you posted on any relevant news throughout the new year right here and from our Twitter account @hodlwithLedn

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